2026-10-14T03:11:55Z https://www.scidb.cn/oai

10.57760/sciencedb.011rc 2026-09-09T15:31:23Z

2026-09-09 Hydropower Droughts Reveal Hidden Adjustment Risks in Global Electricity Transitions doi:10.57760/sciencedb.011rc en Clean-generation shares describe composition but not how a power system absorbs a hydroclimatic shock. We combine a 2005–2023 global country-year panel with capacity-weighted exposure from 7,156 hydroelectric plants and an independent crosswalk linking 3,516 plants to ReGeom/GRanD reservoirs within 25 km. Country and year fixed-effects models estimate conditional associations between reservoir-location scPDSI stress, predetermined hydropower dependence and electricity-system adjustment, with two-way clustered uncertainty, pre-specified Holm/BH-FDR correction, 999-country bootstrap refits, leave-one-out tests, spatial holdouts and a frozen failure backtest. In 1,937 country-years across 102 countries, the stress–dependence interaction is positive for adjustment burden (0.00949; nominal p = 0.021; BH-FDR q = 0.0315; Holm p = 0.107; 95% CI, 0.00146–0.01751), negative for the hydropower margin (−0.00180; nominal p = 0.019), positive for net imports (0.00244; nominal p = 0.020) and positive for electricity carbon-intensity growth (0.00229; nominal p = 0.018). The adjustment chain is directionally concordant across five spatial/asset specifications, and the composite bootstrap interval is 0.00247–0.01533. Fossil and demand margins are not confirmation outcomes, and the frozen prediction improvement is not bootstrap-stable. Clean-share averages can therefore conceal stress-contingent adjustment risk. The evidence supports a conditional-association framework for transition monitoring, not a causal effect or a complete resilience index. hydropower; drought; electricity imports; carbon intensity; energy transition; resilience; global panel; sustainability; GIS Ming Chen PUBLIC https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ dataset Science Data Bank